Sunday, October 31, 2004

Stocks Watch

KOSP waits for one more day for MACD to settle. (Now the 2nd day should be right after it turns positive, need to confirm my theory whether I should buy on the 2nd or 3rd. Should be the 2nd day after first day MACD turns positive. Confirm!!!)

BLL is a good buy for Monday. Buying for Tuesday or any day after is too late. Keep track of fast sto as it seems to narrow the gap.

KOMG is a good buy for Monday. Buying for Tuesday or any day after is too late. Keep track of fast sto as it seems to narrow the gap.

EMN waits for one more day for MACD to settle.

NCR waits for one more day for MACD to settle.

AN waits for one more day for MACD to settle.

AN waits for one more day for MACD to settle.

NTAP, WFII, GNSS, and SRNA are ones MACD is still negative. Will turn positive tomorrow most likely. If it's true (ok) to buy the second day, those stocks can be considered.

Thursday, October 28, 2004

Limit Order

It happens quite a few times that limit orders don't get filled sometimes. The way to address it is to place the limit order between the bid and ask price when the market OPENS, NOT the day before as the price that is most recent can reflect the current condition of the market. As far as stop limit, it has to be set EVERY DAY to ensure profit is gained just as monitoring each positioin happens in a daily basis.

Sunday, October 24, 2004

WL for Put

WL's MACD is turning low with a drop in STO. MACD and STO actions are 1 day old. So the price drop will continue. The drop is about $3.3. Looking at it, the price of the stock is likely to go down to $33. At the end, profit will be [(35-33)-1.25]/1.25= 60%. With $250 investment, it'll be about $150 ROI.

Saturday, October 23, 2004

Puts Stock Analysis

WM - falling, it also breaks the support of $38. There is a potential for it to fall lower. One thing I don't like is its near the bottom of the bollinger band. Cal - falling, but MACD hasn't shown much decrease in momentum. One thing I don't like is its near the bottom of the bollinger band. NTB - falling, but STC doesn't show decrease. Volume doesn't pick up for the decrease. One thing I don't like is its near the bottom of the bollinger band. SAFC - falling, it also breaks the support of $45. There is a potential for it to fall lower. One thing I don't like is its near the bottom of the bollinger band. MACD just turns, better put play than WM. EMMS - no MACD crossing, don't consider C - falling, MACD action 5 days old like WM. One thing I don't like is it's near the bottom of the bollinger band. FRX - falling, as good a put play as SAFC. However, it's phase 1 score is better than SAFC. But it's downtrending as opposed to SAFC which is trending sideways.

POWI

A POWI bear put might be more profitable than a POWI put. Looking at the chart, POWI can fall to 19.82. With the 20/17.5 bear put, it is (0.18/0.85[$1.1-0.25]) profit. Whereas with 20 put, it is negative. In fact, it is proved more profitabe to do a bear put if the trade is above $16. Hence, go ahead and buy 20/sell 17.5 bear put for November. Do one leg at a time by bying $20 first. Wait until price drop and sell $17.5 for smaller debit.

Based on projection, it should drop to 18.5 in 2.5 wks, as soon as market is reviving, sell the 20 and buy back 17.5.

Praying

I didn't realize that prayerlessness is a sin until yesterday. My spirit aquiesced with that statement when I read it. I felt my contact with the Lord was so distant sometimes. Even though praying is important, the fact that I often fail has to do with my living. Holy living gives strength to a praying life. May I continue to pray to God no matter what. This is one of the ways for me to show my faith.

Thursday, October 21, 2004

Patience is the Virtue

If anything I've learned from my almost two weeks of trading of stock options, it is that patience is really a virtue. Although stock options do not have as long the maturity as stocks themselves, they do require patience. I'm only 1.5 weeks into the trade and getting impatient about the growth of my money. I made 2 mistakes since then by pulling out too early. AZR had a rally today. AFCI had made further dive. So I do have to respect time. Time will tell. I should not be pressured by anyone or anything for the expectation of gaining money in shorter than expected period.

The second thing I've learned is that I should never think of making money. By not thinking of it, I am more aware of the what-if situations. This will help me cut down losses if stocks do not go the way I want. What that translates to is playing small plays like 2-3 contracts at the time. By this way, I can spread out my risk by opening more than just one positions.

Once again, I've placed patience on top of all. Playing stocks should be as easy as putting money in the mutual fund. It can't take me more than 10 minutes every day. I need to reduce the time spent on it and not getting addicted because it is just a sign of impatience.

AFCI, FRX, and KSWS

KSWS's MACD stayed the same today as yesterday. There is no sign of decreasing. STO is increasing. Hold it tomorrow.

AFCI's MACD is decreasing to 0.1. Price decreased as expected. STO will cross to signal a price decrease. Hold it tomorrow.

FRX's MACD is below 0.0 for the 2nd day. STO is going lower. Volume increased on lower price. A good sign that it will fall lower. Hold it tomorrow.

Saturday, October 16, 2004

AZR and KSWS

It looks like AZR and KSWS will be good to play calls. AZR has the potential of reaching $30 from $28.67. KSWS has the potential of reaching $23 from $20.23. From my calculation, KSWS offers higher potential of return than AZR (higher premium). On Sunday, need to place a trade of KSWS at $20 in Nov and probablly one of AZR at $25 (or $22.5) depending on the last trading price.

AZR and PPDI

Everything such as MACD, volume, STO give a go on playing calls on the stock. The big chart is also increasing. The price should increase like PPDI for at least one more day since both stocks share the same characteristics in MACD, volume, STO, and big chart. Need to watch the movement of PPDI on Monday to see if price will drop. If so, it will be wise to get out of AZR before it starts to drop.

KSWS

KSWS is doing in terms of its volume, sto, and MACD. Except its big chart decreases from 48 to 37, it indicates that price will continue to rise.

Friday, October 15, 2004

CVH Dropped Further

Need to see how long this trend will continue. It looks like it's going to go on a few more days. But the fact that volume decreases makes me not to jump in into this stock.

ATMI

ATMI is a good stock to play puts in. It breaks the previous support of $19.87 with high volume. MACD and STO are dropping further. The only thing is that the drop was not persistent. Today, the volume was high with a big price increase. Need to see the price drop with high volume with consistency, i.e., support needs to be broken with confidence.

NFLX

There is no reference point as to how much drop NFLX would drop. It's hard to know if it would drop further and how much. Given that bearish is turning over and the uncertainty of this kind of trend, there is a need to observe this type of play. If the price drops further, it is safe to assume that it's safe to play this type of trend in the future.

AFCI

Although it breaks above the 30-day moving avg, momentum is still low. Volume did not pick up, either. Sto is still in the downtrend. Those indicators indicate that there should be some price drop on the stock.

Thursday, October 14, 2004

IP

IP is likely to drop further to $38.75 from $39.16. However, it was too late for me to get into the game. The premiums of 40, 42.5, 45, and 47.5 all are within 5% of the profit. Given I only have $1000 left, it is not worth my time to pursue this stock further.

Things Gone Awry

For CVH, it drops about $5.00 one day. Things have gone wrong twice. As it is dropping, there is a huge volume spike. It's breaking support. However, I did not take immediate action by selling the option. The second thing gone wrong was that I did not place a stop-loss on the order.

Future lesson. Always sell the stock on huge volume spike. Always set up the stop-loss limit.

Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Stock Watch

Calls:
GDW - breaking resistance of $116 with high volume
CVH - need a few more positive momentum to ensure rise in price

Puts:
ATMI - want to see a further drop in price, lower than $19.87 perferablly with high volume
CYMI - want to see a further drop in price, lower than $27.58 perferablly with high volume